Its the economy, stupid

Although it has flown largely under the radar of the American press, there has been a significant increase in protests across Tunisia over the past few weeks. Last Friday there was a “sit-in” in he Kasba in downtown Tunis.  The police made the unfortunate decision to break up the demonstration, which has only lead to escalating violence over the past week. A fourteen year old boy was actually killed in clashes in Sidi Bouzaid, the place where the first revolution began.

The Tunisian government is blaming the problems on anti-democracy protesters aiming to derail the elections. This is clearly a veiled  reference to the Salafists and other conservative Islamic movements that have been the main perpetrators of post-revolution violence thus far (such as the attack on the film showing I mentioned in my last post). I’m not buying it.

Part of my daily responsibility has been to translate some Tunisian news articles into English. When the Salafists were causing problems, the articles clearly reflected it. I read plenty about Salafist violence and the secular response. Over the past week or so, the tone and content of these protests has clearly changed. The people taking to the streets now are not angry Islamists, they are the average Tunisians who were on the streets back in January. Thats not to say another revolution is going on, but it does mean this is not some rogue element of the population determined to cause trouble.

On the face of it, these protests seem pointless. Elections are already scheduled for October. The current government in Tunisia is only going to be around for another two months anyway. The representatives chosen in October will create the new constitution, and allow a permanent government to be formed. What can these protests even hope to achieve? Even if they do manage to overthrow the government, a new one is coming anyway. Yet I think the causes of these protests actually say a lot about the problems in this country.

From what I can gather, there are several main issues causing these protests. First and most importantly, the government has consistently refused to prosecute any police officers for killing protesters back in January. According to the people I have spoken to, there were snipers in many Tunisian cities who shot innocent civilians. However the government has refused to acknowledge any of this and claims there were no snipers. Many of the articles I am reading talk about the “families of the martyrs” and the need for justice.

Even more problematic is the general disregard some of the police seem to have for human rights. While the army seems to be a (at least somewhat) respected institution in Tunisian, the police seem generally despised. And for good reason-- during the time of Ben Ali they were hopelessly corrupt, and their response to the current protests has been terrible. I have read countless stories of police brutality, from physical abuse of prisoners to unjustified and overly aggressive arrests. The International Federation for Human Rights even released a report last week condemning police behavior. In any case, I think a large reason the protests have escalated over the past few days instead of calming down is that people have seen the police response and are genuinely pissed off by it.

However the largest problem for Tunisia is the economy.  This article sums up the problem pretty well: too many graduates, not enough jobs. Tunisia has a great education system, and it has produced an entire generation of young people who are over educated and underemployed. Even the people who have jobs aren’t necessarily happy with them. I was talking to my friend who works at the front desk for AMIDEAST the other day, and he hates his job. I don’t blame him-- hes clearly a really smart guy, who graduated college and has near perfect English. But hes stuck working in a completely unengaging position with no real prospects for advancement. And hes one of the lucky ones-- at least he has something.

The official unemployment rate in Tunisia is 14%, but that doesn’t really account for the large number of people who have very part time jobs. In any case, I think these protests are really a reflection of the general discontent of jobless youth in Tunisia. 55% of the population is under the age of 25, something which would make any country unstable. Add to that that many of those young people are well educated but jobless and you have a recipe for disaster. I think the people protesting now are the same people who brought down the government in January. They are unemployed and want change in their country. Unfortunately the change Tunisia needs is going to take time. No government can turn around an economy in less than six months. Indeed, I personally think things are going to get worse here before they get better: the tourism industry, which accounts for more than 60% of the Tunisian economy, has taken a huge hit. The crisis in Libya is further exacerbating the situation-- somewhere around 200,000 Tunisians worked there before the revolution. It will be a few months before the full effect of either of these problems is going to be felt, but when they are its not going to be pretty.

All of this makes me fairly concerned about where the country will go after the elections. A Tunisian friend of mine thinks there will be another revolution when change doesn’t come quickly enough. I don’t know if I believe that. But I do wonder if there will be more protests, especially when it becomes clear no government can magic Tunisia’s economic problems away. Of course more political unrest would be the worst possible result for the country-- getting tourism and investment requires stability. That said, while many people are dissatisfied with the temporary government, I get the sense many Tunisians want democracy in this country to succeed. They are eager to prove that their revolution was a success, and that they can build their own stable political system. Rashed, a friend of mine here, told me the other day that because of the revolution everyone needs to work twice as hard, even if it means less money. For the sake of this country, I hope this mindset prevails.


Ps- Sorry I didn’t link as many articles today, a lot of them would have been in Arabic. Given that it still takes me a good half our to read a paragraph in them, I figured you would be willing to take my word for it.

Revolution!

I’ve waited four weeks to talk about the revolution in Tunisia because its a complicated topic and I wanted to make sure I understood it before I said anything. Now that its been a month, I still don’t think I have a complete grasp on whats going on here, so I reserve the right to revise this later.

The part of the Tunisian revolution I want to focus on is the support for Islamic political parties: what it means for both Tunisia’s future and the future of US relations with Tunisia. Before coming here, I thought most of the Arab revolutions were both socially and politically radical-- they wanted to overthrow the current political order and make society in general more free. After spending time here though, I’ve realized thats not entirely true. While Ben Ali was an incredible thief and a political tyrant, he didn’t limit most social freedoms (unless of course you wanted to say something against the regime. But thats what I mean by political tyrant). Interestingly one of the main social freedoms Ben Ali did take away was the freedom to wear the hijab.

Now that Ben Ali is gone, there has been a resurgence of Islamic groups. The most well-known one (and the only one with official licence) is An-Nahda, a group that was totally crushed during Ben Ali’s rule. Mark Lynch wrote a fantastic article a few weeks ago about the situation of An-Nahda right now, and it jives completely with what people have been telling me. An-Nahda clearly has the most support of any of the ninety or so political parties that were created following the revolution. That said, people seem very suspicious of it and its positions. While An-Nahda says that it is for a moderate interpretation of Islam and is modeling itself off the Turkish AKP, many of the Tunisians I have talked to are worried that this is a front and when An-Nahda is in power it will push a very conservative agenda.

The other prominent Islamic group in Tunisia right now are the Salafists. While An-Nahda might be promoting a moderate agenda, the Salafists certainly are not. If you are interested, the wikipedia entry gives a good background on Salafist beliefs. If not, suffice to say Salafists believe in a very conservative version of Islam that only looks to the first three generations of Muslims*. Although I am fairly certain the Salafists represent only a tiny minority of Tunisians, they have certainly made their presence known. A group of Salafists actually attacked a film showing in Tunis a few weeks ago. The Salafist vision for Tunisia is a very conservative one, and if they were able to take power I think many of the liberties Tunisians enjoy now would disappear.

All of that said, based on the discussions I’ve been having I think the majority of Tunisians are quite moderate. However they are not as moderate as I thought before I came here. As I wrote above, my impression of the “Arab Spring” is that it was led by youth who wanted social and political freedom. While the desire for political freedom is obvious, I’m no longer so sure that Tunisia is going to be as socially free as it was before. Almost everyone I have talked to says that Tunisia is an Islamic state. Many people think that Ben Ali (and his really despised wife Lela) went too far in banning the hijab and promoting more Western behavior. They believe Tunisia needs to return to its Arab/Muslim roots.

Now that I’ve witnessed this first-hand, I’ve also realized that I’ve been reading very similar things about other countries going through their own revolts. This article about Syria, the last two paragraphs in this article about Libya, a lot of what has been said about the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt-- in all of these situations there seems to be a fairly strong Islamic sentiment.

So what does this all mean? I can’t really comment on the other states, but I can say I don’t think Tunisia is going to end up with a highly conservative, Islamic government. Even if An-Nahda ends up with a significant percentage of the parliament (the most generous estimates give them 30% of the population, no where near a majority) , there is no way they are going to be able to single handily enforce some sort of  radical Islamic agenda. While the country might grow slightly more conservative, its not going to become Saudi Arabia or Iran.  More importantly, the stronger call here is for democracy. I have witness first-hand how excited Tunisians are to choose their own government. The only thing anyone wants to talk about is the revolution and the upcoming elections. They are making history and they know it. No government is going to be able to shut down political debate, no matter what its agenda is.

The United States is notorious for its reluctance to support Islamic governments. But if An-Nahda ends up with some sort of majority in Tunisia, I think it would be an incredibly foolish move for the United States to intervene in any way. And seriously, if I read anything about the US funding other parties in Tunisia, I will probably cry. If we haven’t learned our lesson yet about intervening into the politics of other nations, then we never will. I am currently reading a book about the Iranian hostage crisis, and its pretty clear that the CIA sponsored assassination of an Iranian prime minister and continued support for the Shah played a large part in creating support for the Islamists there. If the US intervenes into politics here ( or anywhere in the Middle East for that matter) I think a similar reaction is quite likely.

Finally, I direct you to a phenomenal blog post about the Muslim Brotherhood and democracy. Although Jonathan Wright (A journalist who has been based in the Middle East reporting for Reuters for the past 30 years and is an all around bad ass) should probably write with a few more paragraphs, its worth powering through till the end. As he states:

For decades, social liberals have hidden behind the authoritarian state to do the dirty work of keeping the Islamists out of politics. If there is be lasting change, the liberals have to take on the Muslim Brotherhood's ideology in the free marketplace of ideas,  instead of fretting and running for cover. That's what democracy is about. That's why the best democracies allows communists and fascists to run for office, in the confidence that a well-educated and well-informed public will not vote for them in large numbers. Sometimes people do vote for them, but that's because the liberals and secularists have not done their work properly.

I could not agree more. As long as these new democracies remain democratic, its not any business of the US to try to influence politics. The citizens of these new countries have a right to debate and choose the government they want. The United States loves to give lectures about the value of democracy and freedom of speech-- maybe its about time we actually let them happen in the Near East.



*Please, please, please understand that conservative and violent are not the same. If you read the word Salafist and thought terrorist, please read the wikipedia page


ps- Sorry about the editing level on the post last week. Probz not my finest hour. I've tried to be better this week.

No matter how many times you hiss at me I'm probably not going to sleep with you

As much as I'm enjoying my time in Tunisia, there is one thing that seriously bothers me about traveling in this part of the world: the constant sexual harassment.

Its pretty much impossible to walk down the street here and not get blatantly stared at/verbally harassed. Since I have fairly dark hair and am not super pale its not particularly bad for me, but for any blond haired/blue eyed female I've heard it can be awful. Indeed Tunisa/Morocco are supposed to be good compared to Cairo, where I've heard of really miserable stuff like women being fondled.

I think the easiest way to describe the way it feels is that you are a constantly a sexual object. No matter where you go, you get constant attention for your gender. Its really unfortunate and in Morocco it even stopped me from going places by myself. Here I've learned to deal with it a lot better, and have realized that you just have to ignore it and move on. That said, sometimes its just so frustrating. I was riding a bus the other day and some asshole teenager (who had been staring at me the whole time) touched my face as he was getting off at his stop. I responded as any mature adult would by giving him the swear finger. He then started making obscene gestures and hit the bus as it was leaving. Today when I was walking around a police officer started hissing at me. Dealing with stuff like that when you are just going about your daily business gets so old. All you want is to just do your thing in the world and be left alone but it doesn't happen.

When I was in Morocco last year I thought it was a special treatment reserved for foreigners, but I've recently learned that even local women deal with it as well. A Tunisian friend of mine was telling me the other day about the obscene things men say to here on a regular basis. This is all backed up by the little research I've done as well- a survey done in Egypt by the Center for Women's Rights found that 98% of foreign women and 83% of local women have experienced some form of sexual harassment.

I've had discussions here about why its a problem and what should be done about it. I don't know if anyone remembers the Lara Logan controversy, but a lot of the debate surrounding her attack focused on Islam and the treatment of women. Full disclosure: I'm not an expert on either of those issues, and I can't say I'm really the most qualified to talk about it. That said, I've now dealt with this for two summers (and been a woman all my life) so I'm going to give my opinion.

I think the treatment of women here is related to cultural norms and what is considered acceptable. It is impossible to talk about the culture of the Near East and not talk about Islam- so of course the debates become muddled. Indeed, I challenge you to think of a problem in the Near East that someone doesn't blame on Islam. That said, I don't think there is anything intrinsic to Islam that causes the harassment I face on a daily basis. Muhammad himself treated his wives with great respect. One of them, Aisha, was even a leader in one of the great battles in Islamic history.

Indeed, one of the best articles I read about the Lara Logan debate was about being a female journalist more generally. The author, Sabrina Tavernise, talks about the harassment she faced traveling across the Near East. However I thought the ending was the most interesting part-- she argues the worst interactions she had were with Russian soldiers in Georgia. These Russian soldiers weren't Muslim, and they certainly didn't come from an Islamic culture (just read about the Russian government's treatment of Chechnya). Cultural norms on this issue can be messed up anywhere, regardless of what religion is practiced.

Anyway, to conclude, I think the harassment here has two really unfortunate consequences beyond the obvious everyday annoyance. The first one is that it makes me (and other women I've talked to) feel constantly uneasy. Although I'm probably not in any danger, being constantly watched and harassed just makes you feel insecure. The chances that anything will happen are probably incredibly small, but I just don't feel as safe here as I do when walking around in the US.

The second is that it makes me a lot less willing to talk and interact with any man I might meet. Today I was walking past someone and they said "As-Salama!" (hello). I automatically said hello back, but when I turned around I realized it was an older man. The first thing I thought was: oh shit, did I just invite someone to follow me around for the next twenty minutes (which happened several times in Morocco)? Luckily he just wanted to say hello and after a short conversation I went on my way. But most of the time I don't respond to men because I don't want to chance the other alternative. The constant risk of harassment limits my interaction with Tunisians in a very real way, and it makes me resent the situation even more.

Alright thats all I've got for now. Hope everyone summers are going well!

Second Topic: What I'm Doing

I’ve had a decent number of people ask me what I’m doing in Tunis, so I figured I would write a somewhat detailed post about my job. Since the organization I’m working for is actually pretty interesting, I think this might be a worthwhile topic.

So my internship is with the organization AMIDEAST. You can read a ton of information on that website about the goals/history of AMIDEAST, but in a nutshell its main purpose is to promote cultural exchange between the United States and the Near East/North Africa. Given the relationship between the Western world and the Near East today, I think its safe to say that’s a pretty admirable/important goal.

AMIDEAST has sites across the region, from Morocco to the West Bank and Gaza. The exact programming offered at each of these places differs depending on the demands of the location and the length of time AMIDEAST has been in the country. The site in Tunis, where I am working, has been open for over thirty years now, so it is fairly established. Most of its programming is focused around ESL classes and study abroad opportunities (in the United States).

My boss (Jonathan Lange) just became (literally last Monday) the acting country director for Tunisia, but when I was hired he was more involved in the money management side of things. So my assignments have really been more focused on financial questions, rather than overall questions about how AMIDEAST should function.

When I first got here I had a long conversation with Jonathan about the problems involved in running a non-profit and staying afloat while also offering affordable programming. Unfortunately AMIDEAST cannot just depend on the government to write a blank check for everything they want to do, so they have to make smart financial decisions about expansion opportunities. This is where I come in.

AMIDEAST Tunis is considering opening a new site in another part of the city, one that would be larger and able to offer more services. However there are a lot of questions that must be answered before making such a large decision. Questions like: is there demand for more services? Would this new location be closer or father for the people AMIDEAST is serving now? Would opening a new site make AMIDEAST more accessible to people who might not be able to reach it now? Just like any for profit company, AMIDEAST must answer these questions or risk going under (and not providing any services).

My job for the past two weeks has been to look at the data AMIDEAST collects from its clientele and try to decide whether a new location makes sense. One of my first tasks was to evaluate the location data from current clients and see how they might relate to a new site. Although a lot of what I’m doing is pretty tedious, getting to see how decisions like this are made is pretty fascinating (At least I think it is). Just like any company AMIDEAST must try to figure out demand curves, and see if programs can be sustainable (both in terms of impact and financially). What makes this even more complicated though is that AMIDEAST has to figure this out in Tunisia as opposed to in the United States. Figuring out demand is one thing in a completely wired country where there is (fairly) easy access to a target population. Its entirely another in a place where wireless internet is not even close to ubiquitous (Our apartment sure doesn’t have it. We have to use a 3G key thing. Its really slow. I don’t want to talk about it) and the only way to do research is to go to an area and talk to people.

I read this article awhile ago, and I highly recommend it. It talks about Walmart’s expansion into China and all the complications that go along with it. Obviously the problems AMIDEAST faces in Tunisia are very different, but on a basic level they are the same—how do you figure out expansion issues in a country that is not completely developed.

As most of my friends know, I’ve never really been interested in business/finance type issues. I’ve taken an Econ class at Uchicago, but that’s about as far as my knowledge goes. That said, getting this internship and reading about China has made me seriously consider the value of my regional knowledge in other contexts. Although influencing government policy has always been my dream, being here and seeing what AMIDEAST does (and the considerations that go into it) has made me really think about other opportunities.

Anyway, sorry if this was significantly less interesting than the last post. I promise next week will be something more fun.